A top lawyer equates the odds of the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) winning against Ripple. Can Ripple Still Fail? In this Pooyan Music post , we examine the possibility of such an event.
The legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has seen several twists and turns over the past few months. Attorney Jeremy Hogan recently weighed in on the ongoing dispute and gave the SEC just a 2.367% chance of winning. He humorously likened it to the New York Jets’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.
This conclusion comes from Hogan’s in-depth analysis. which outlines the potential paths this case may take.
Hogan’s analysis outlines the tortuous and convoluted path the SEC needs to take to win decisively against Ripple.
First, even if the SEC chooses to appeal next year, and if the Court of Appeals upholds them in 2025, it won’t mark the end of the matter. The reason for this lies in the statement of the judge’s initial order. An order that requires the appellate court to return the case to a judge for more detailed judicial review.
Adding to the complexity of the matter, even if the appellate court upholds them on the planned sale, it still goes back to the trial court for further review. Hogan has asserted that subsequent appeals are necessary following these retrial decisions. And only after navigating this legal maze can the SEC win. The main point? Ripple could then potentially appeal to the Supreme Court.
Beyond these procedural challenges, the SEC must withstand settlement, succeed in its initial appeal (which Hogan gives only a 14 percent chance), persevere through subsequent hearings, and ultimately win another appeal. This doesn’t even factor in potential external game changes, such as congressional legislation, political regime change, or other unforeseen developments.
After the SEC’s surprise decision to drop charges against Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, XRP rose more than 8%. This caused a celebratory frenzy in the XRP community.
However, legal commentators warn that the SEC’s strategy may be aimed at speeding up the appeals process.
By voluntarily dismissing the charges, the SEC could potentially fast-track its challenge against Ripple instead of sitting idle until the trial ends next spring.