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Examining Bitcoin statistics from the 2019 bull market might provide important information about the present support levels and upward price goals for BTC.
The current price increase of bitcoin from $16,500 to $25,000 can be ascribed to recent macroeconomic expansions and a short squeeze in the futures market. Despite price increases, evidence indicates that many potential purchasers, especially whales, stayed away from the market.
The latest rise to $25,000 was quite similar to the 2019 bear market rally, which witnessed a 330% increase in the price of Bitcoin from the November 2019 low of $3,250 to highs above $14,000. From its low point in November 2022, the BTC/USD pair recently increased over 60%.
Market and on-chain indications for the 2019 surge provide conflicting information about whether or not Bitcoin’s climb will continue. Nonetheless, there are compelling arguments to support the notion that the market has reached a pivotal juncture when it may either enter a full-fledged bull market or revert to a long-term negative trend.
To comprehend the present price dynamic in relation to the 2019 bull run, let’s have a look at the top five signs.
Around $19,600, the price of bitcoin is above the 200-day moving average (MA), which would entice paper traders to start a long position. This indicator has served as a pivot line in the past, with breakouts above it being bullish and below it being bearish.
During a breakthrough, BTC/USD often retests the 200-day MA, which increases the likelihood that a pullback toward $19,500 will occur. This wasn’t the case in 2019, though, as the price increased without a decline to the 200-day MA.
Traders are probably keeping an eye on the 200-week moving average at $25,100 at the same time. Until November 2022, the price of bitcoin had never fallen below the 200-week MA; regaining this level would persuade technical investors to go on board.
Nonetheless, traders could continue to sit on the sidelines until a breakout occurs. Permanent swap financing rates are now neutral, indicating that traders are awaiting confirmation.
Immortal, a cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, discovered the market is only at the “halfway point” when comparing the length of the current surge to the one in 2019. Just 92 days have elapsed since the low on November 9, 2023, compared to the 193 days that the 2019 rally took to reach its peak.
If the 2019 timeframe fractal remains true in 2023, according to Immortal, BTC/USD might go as high as $46,000 by March.
The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) oscillator for Bitcoin measures the purchasing power of the market. The indicator calculates the difference between the supply of stablecoins and the market capitalization of Bitcoin. Low values on the SSR oscillator suggest that stablecoins have a higher buying power. On the other hand, a jump in the measure denotes overbought circumstances.
The SSR oscillator rose to heights not seen since 2019 and 2021 as a result of the jump in the price of bitcoin in February 2023. The signal indicates that the upward trend may soon come to a stop. There is a tiny possibility of one final surge upward toward the psychological level of $30,000.
Nevertheless, the regulatory crackdown on the Binance USD stablecoin, which resulted in a large reduction in supply, should be taken into consideration when interpreting the statistics. The SSR oscillator may have been adjusted to oversell circumstances.
The lack of whale buying is one of the main issues with the current spike. In contrast to 2019, the current upswing has seen whales sell. Concerns regarding the sustainability of the upward trend are raised by the disparity between whale numbers and prices.
When there is a downturn in an upward trend, which is when the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) indicator remains over one, investors increase their winning holdings. In a downtrend, on the other hand, bears rule the market by selling into rallies. A probable trend reversal indicator is a metric crossing above one.
The modified SOPR indicator’s 7-day moving average from Glassnode indicates that the bear trend has probably reversed. When Bitcoin surpassed $20,800 in January 2023, the signal changed from bearish to positive. With Bitcoin’s price reaching $21,800, the measure retested the critical support level, making it a crucial support level for an extended rally.
Another indication of a likely trend reversal is the price’s climb above the average purchase levels of both short- and long-term holders. The on-chain oscillators’ return to equilibrium might mean that the market has reached a critical turning point.
The measures also suggest that if the price remains above the support levels of $21,800, $20,800, and $19,600, a possible bull trend is likely.
The present rise may be supported by a weekly closing over $25,100, but there are some indications that the market may be approaching overheated conditions, and a swift pullback below lower support levels cannot be ruled out.
