The price of Bitcoin is still as much as 60% below its all-time high of November 2021, so many traders are wondering if the price of BTC may fall further in the coming months.
When we look at the price chart this year, we can see that Bitcoin is still on the path of a bullish comeback. The price of Bitcoin after falling and bottoming around $16,800 in November 2022, despite the concerns related to the increase in interest rates and the fear of traders about this, as well as the public’s optimism and hope for the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). , has increased by 70%.
However, Bitcoin bulls have not been able to sustain the price above the $30,000 level in recent months. Therefore, considering that there are still more than 200 days left until the halving, many traders have been asked whether the price of Bitcoin may decrease again in the coming months or whether it will continue to work in the same current trend.
The Fibonacci Fractal indicates a fall in the price of Bitcoin to the level of $21,500
Technically, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized around the 0.236 Fibonacci line of its retracement Fibonacci indicator. This Fibonacci is drawn from the $69,000 ceiling swing (market top) to the $15,900 floor swing (market bottom).
This sustained Bitcoin price performance is very similar to what we saw during the 2018 price correction.
In 2018, the Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) currency pair stabilized around its 0.236 Fibo line at around $6,790 and held this position for months before dropping to the $3,000 level in December. The trading range was set. The $3,000 level coincided with what is now multi-year uptrend line support (marked as bearish price support on the chart above).
Currently, considering that the price has stabilized at the 0.236 Fibo line, Bitcoin is in the middle of its path to repeat 2018. A break below this level means that Bitcoin price will see the $21,500 level as its next key support, which is approximately 75.75% below its current level.
The strengthening of the dollar increases the risk of Bitcoin’s downward movement
The growth of the dollar accelerated after the US central bank’s decision to stop raising interest rates on September 20, and currently the DXY index has recorded its 11th consecutive weekly green candlestick.
In other words, if the dollar continues to grow after DXY reaches a Golden Cross, the bullish outlook for Bitcoin may become darker and darker than before.